Hey guys, so I’ve seen some posts around about daily routines so I thought I’d share my own. I consider myself to be great at being productive even early in the morning, and here’s how I achieve that. Hope this is helpful, and feel free to ask me questions if you have any!
I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.
When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:
During WWII the US Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:
So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald – a mathematician – started asking questions:
– how did you obtain that data? – well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. – and your conclusion? – well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. – no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hitand return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.
This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.
BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.
If you want to think scientifically, ALWAYS ask what data was included in a conclusion. And ALWAYS ask what data was EXCLUDED when making a conclusion.
If they have excluded information because “it doesn’t exist” or “it was too hard to get” or “it was good data but was provided by people we don’t like”, then that is a BIG RED FLAG that the analysis was flawed.
Another example of this is originally doctor’s thought smoking protected people from developing dementia until someone pointed out it was because smokers didn’t usually live long enough to get the most common forms.
My name is James, and I am a 20 year old trans man. I am a sociology student, an aspiring author, an activist and employee for an LGBT nonprofit, a best friend, a big brother to my two younger sisters, and a son to my mother and father. I also call myself a father to my cat, dog, turkey, and numerous chickens; all of which I love dearly.
My journey in transitioning has been a less than smooth one, especially when it came down to finally getting my top surgery booked.
To keep it short; I have been facing bump after bump all throughout the process of getting to where I am now due to rescheduling, my work, my surgeon quitting, my surgeon returning, and various screwups on my insurance’s part. Despite all of this, I have fought and pushed my way to get where I am now, only to hit another roadblock. I now am unable to pay for both living expenses and surgery expenses.
This surgery is a vital one, both to my physical and mental health. My ribcage is deformed from 5 years of binding my chest every day, and I now suffer chronic back and shoulder pain on top of the pain in my ribs. My mental health has suffered heavily as a result of this, both because of the strain of fighting depression, anxiety, and gender dysphoria, but also from being unable to bind as often as I need to fight the dysphoria.
I currently live with my father whose own health is failing. Between our two paychecks, we still struggle to pay our bills every month. My mother is unable to help us financially, because she is living in a similar situation as my father and I, though she also cares for my two younger sisters.
I will be seeing Doctor Satterwhite through Brownstein and Crane Surgical Services on October 18th, 2018 for a bilateral double mastectomy. This procedure itself covered by my insurance; however, since I will be unable to work for 6 weeks, we will be struggling to keep afloat until I am able to return to work.
As of right now, I am still unable to fully cover other medical expenses (such as wound care supplies, medications, mobility aids, etc) because of my financial situation.
Right now, anything will help us keep our bills paid, keep food on the table, and keep me healing safely.
I will also be adding my link to my amazon wishlist and gofundme, if you are able to purchase, donate, or even share anything, I promise you, it will help me immensely.
I was just kicked out of my house. Any little bit helps, even just sharing my link.
Longg story short: My dad was allowing an ex gang member whose own mother kicked him out of his house for beating his wife live in our backyard. I expressed my discomfort with this, especially because my younger sisters are there and this man was also bringing girlfriends in without telling us.
But as they say, abusers defend abusers. My dad screamed in my face that there was no proof and no police involvement (we’re family friends with that whole family. I saw the cuts and bruises on the wife. There was no doubt she was battered.) When i had my youngest sister and roommate get some stuff together to stay at my moms for the night, my dad caught me outside as I was getting into an uber, and screamed at me in front of the driver that he hopes im prepared to stay at my mom’s, because I’m not allowed back.
He chose a wifebeater over his own son. That’s where I’m at right now.
I’m essentially homeless, and it’s less than two weeks way from my top surgery. I cannot stress enough how much even just sharing my campaign will help me.
In case anyone’s wondering is because getting an x ray once is so barely harmful that it rounds to zero but standing in front of an x ray emitter 40 hours a week for years will definitely kill you
If I go to the bar and have one drink with the bartender I’ll be fine. If the bartender has a drink with every patron then they will die
my philosophy is “nothing an individual can do could possibly be worse for the environment than major corporations dumping tons of pollutants into the atmosphere every day but also don’t just toss shit on the ground you idiot have some manners”
rip tumblr 