the care bears always make fun of bedtime bear bc hes tired all the time and accidentally falls asleep but its only bc he stays up all night to make sure that everyone else sleeps well and to banish nightmares and protect people
Hey guys, so I’ve seen some posts around about daily routines so I thought I’d share my own. I consider myself to be great at being productive even early in the morning, and here’s how I achieve that. Hope this is helpful, and feel free to ask me questions if you have any!
I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.
When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:
During WWII the US Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:
So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald – a mathematician – started asking questions:
– how did you obtain that data? – well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. – and your conclusion? – well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. – no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hitand return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.
This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.
BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.
If you want to think scientifically, ALWAYS ask what data was included in a conclusion. And ALWAYS ask what data was EXCLUDED when making a conclusion.
If they have excluded information because “it doesn’t exist” or “it was too hard to get” or “it was good data but was provided by people we don’t like”, then that is a BIG RED FLAG that the analysis was flawed.
Another example of this is originally doctor’s thought smoking protected people from developing dementia until someone pointed out it was because smokers didn’t usually live long enough to get the most common forms.
Toccata and Fugue in D Minor | Johann Sebastian Bach.
I wonder how long it took to practice this shit
DRIFT COMPATIBLE, BABY
i just want to zip back in time and show this video to Bach like look at this shit some day hundreds of years in the future there will be a gigantic flat piano made of lightning and processed dinosaur juice and two future girls will be so passionate and talented that they play your song by dancing it out and people all over the world will see it and be so fucking excited isn’t that the coolest thing ever
Like. Supposedly it’s really popular? The numbers don’t lie. But I haven’t seen or heard a single person actively talk about or recommend it. It’s got that weird combination of incredible success and zero cultural impact.
People who prefer hot weather: Snow and ice are a pain, and the cold is just kind of uncomfortable even when you wrap up, you know?
People who prefer cold weather: MY SKIN LITERALLY MELTS OFF EVERY SUMMER I AM A FUCKING HUMAN SOUP AS WE SPEAK
you wouldn’t believe how many people reblogged this to whine about hot weather in the tags.
too cold? put on another layer!
too hot? change into thinner clothes!
still too cold? put on another layer!
still too hot? uh, get naked I guess?
still too cold? put on another layer!
still too hot? Ţ̡̜̮̗̟̯͘ͅA̛͈͎̤͙̳̦̱̜̺̪K̢̻̥̥̥̪̙̜̩̗̼̤̻̻͖͍̜͈͉͠ͅE̟͕̩͔̪͓͔̥̦͇̣͇̳͕͉͜ͅ ̠̝̥̖̭̦̼́͝O̩̦͓̠͉̲̲̱̪̹̻̼̭̯͎͈̕͢F̷̸̢̛̙͇͔̜̙̮̗̲̤͇̯͡F̧̨̱̤̲̫͕͔̼̭͙̠̙͙̹̻ͅ ҉̫̠͓̙̠͔̕͜͠Y͡҉̴̘̭̬̳́O̶̶̧͚̞̣̯̩̫̜̩͉̤͎͖̖͟ͅU̶̵̺̠̪̘̱̮̮̙̻͈̣̦̭͠͝͞R̨҉̦̺͓̩̺͖̘̪̥̺͚̱͚͔̪͓̖̰ ̷̸̺͇̳͇̖̥̻̳͚̗̥͙̪̣́S̡̞̳͖̭̯͉̻̠͔̥̹̫̣̼̹͇͜K͏̧͍̪̗̖̜̫̙̱̫͈̟̝̮͈̻̺̯̟̠̀Į̧̙͙͔̠͖̟̕͝Ǹ͖͎̳͍̪̱̞͇̺̘̩͘͜͠
The cold is easily shut out, the heat is inescapable hell
THE TRUTH COMES OUT.
Avoidance techniques for the cold:
-more coats, fire, hot food and drink, stay inside, fuzzy sweaters, ear muffs, become a burrito
…well, that escalated quickly. I posted it way back at the end of 2014, it got reblogged by several BNFs in quick succession yesterday, and then it proceeded to rack up like 2,000 notes in one day, so apparently it still needs to be said:
Yes, you are allowed.
You are allowed to write the fic you want, rather than the fic you feel obligated to write. You’re allowed to write crack, crazy realism-defying stunts, self-indulgent trope fic, fucked-up fic about problematic people doing unhealthy things. Fic that doesn’t go through the pre-flight safety check for every swordfight and every BDSM scene, fic that glosses over the ugly real-life fallout of psychological trauma and/or jumping out of a quinjet without a parachute. Or, hey, if that’s your thing, fic that dwells on psychological trauma in loving, messy detail and has at least three punchlines about characters not being able to defy the laws of physics. Any of those things! All those things! We contain multitudes!
Any fic you write is probably going to be a net positive for fandom. The people who were looking for something in your niche get it, the people who didn’t know they wanted something in your niche discover a new thing they like, the people who don’t like it click the back button, the people who really really hate that entire genre of fic get to stroke their hateboners and get high off their own self-righteousness.
If it upsets people? The back button is a failsafe and instantaneous safeword. If it’s not as ~quality~ as other people’s fic? Don’t make me break out that “holy shit! TWO cakes!” comic. If someone takes away a disturbing, unhealthy, or otherwise less-than-wholesome message from your fic? You are not responsible for their failures of critical thinking or reading comprehension, to say nothing of those reading with outright malice looking for something to pounce on after interpreting it as uncharitably as humanly possible. Jesus fucking christ, it’s fanfiction, if people legit want sex ed they should be on Scarleteen. It’s not your job to educate them, certainly not with your fic. It’s not. It’s not. Fic serves so many other purposes. You are allowed to write what you want.
If you are a writer, read this.
You are a creator. Your voice is unique and beautiful and flawed and human and inherently precious. You do not define yourself in opposition. You do not seek to validate your existence by silencing other voices. You create. You add value to the sphere of existence by sheer force of will and your own efforts. Ignore the bullshit from psychotic antis who hate pretty much everything about human beings (especially sex, hoo boy). Ignore the squawking rabble of vicious little demons whose only satisfaction comes from trying to crush everything they see into the same ugly, grey, joyless conformity, and just write. Do it.
“They’re afraid of losing friends, being ridiculed in class, getting worse grades and are even afraid of being assaulted and physically hurt.”
good
no, not good. because if we hate them as much as Trump and his supporters hate certain groups, we are no better than they are.
yeah I am
“if you hate these bigots you’re just as bigoted as they are”
This “we’re no better than them” mentality makes the critical mistake that hate itself is the problem.
Hate is not the problem. At all. Hate can be constructive. Hate can be defensive and come from righteous outrage.
The problem is irrational hate towards innocent people.
Hating a racist is COMPLETELY fucking different from hating a race. A whole race didn’t do anything wrong. A racist did. Hating the racist is 100% proportionate, justifiable retaliation.
Fucking. Mic. Drop.
The reason that hate groups like the Klan have been driven so near to extinction is because of this exact thing. It became unfashionable to be publicly racist, and the backlash against those kinds of groups became unbearable for them. It drove them out of the limelight and into the very fringes of society.
This postmodern “hating the hate makes you just as bad” bullshit is what’s allowing them to re-prosper.
Fuck that.
Expose them. Make them lose their friends. Ridicule them in classes. If you can get away with it, beat their asses. Show them what it means that we will not go back to that way of life again. It’s time for the racists to be the ones who live in fear.
Hating bigotry does not a bigot make.
Imma just leave this here
The paradox of tolerance is that you cannot ever tolerate intolerance of any name or nature or tolerance itself will be snuffed out.
Punch your local Nazi. Make them bleed.
People of color, Jewish people, queer and trans people, immigrants, and a whole bunch of people can never truly exercise the full extent of their freedom of speech so long as Nazis are exercising their freedom of speech. You literally cannot let everyone have unlimited freedom when a big group of people wants to use their freedom to, at best, keep other groups of people from being free, and at worst wants to keep other groups of people from being alive. It is 100% impossible to accommodate the viewpoints of every single person at the same time.
So you actually have to choose whose rights you want to preserve. There is nothing to be gained by defending facists’ right to free speech, as doing that inherently attacks the free speech of a bunch of other people. You have to choose, you can’t be wishy washy about this. Not making a choice just means choosing the status quo, and the status quo sucks. Actively fight facists.
1. They understand that they have to think about themselves first
They are selfish as hell and that’s why we hate them.
2. They don’t overestimate or underestimate themselves.
In life it’s crucial for a person to recognize it’s level in order for others to see it too.
3. They constantly pick up things from people.
The people in history books and self-help book are not the only inspiration in life. They look at people around them, pick their best trait and make use of it.
4. Celebrities count too.
You hear on TV from other actors how incredible this person is. If you do a little digging you can find what makes them special and why the people around them talk a certain way about them.
5. Learn about you favourite characters from your author or the actor playing it, if it’s from a movie.
If you hear about how an incredible character was created you’ll understand why you admire them and use that instead of just holding them dear to you heart.
6. They use people around them to advance.
They will annoy teachers or classmates who are better with questions, problems and matter of solving them
7. They know people care about themselves first.
They talk about yourself and ask you questions because they know that’s what you want to hear.
8. Not giving up
What separates a person from another very quickly and very much is their strength to work things out. Not walking off on anything that seems overwhelming is hard to do, but remember that some things are difficult for a reason. Maybe you feel that people are harsh on you but you need to be able to recognize when someone wants to lift you up and push you into becoming something great. Getting out of your comfort zone is always a good idea.
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